Bitcoin Longs Indicate Bitcoin Price Could Fall Further – But Can It be Trusted?

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Bitcoin Price End of Year

Currently, there is an excess of Bitcoin longs on Bitfinex and even more on Ethereum. Let’s take a deeper look at the current Bitcoin price and what could be coming up for the Bitcoin price end of year.

Nothing should be considered investment or financial advice. Enjoy the ride.

Bitcoin End of Year Price

With the year coming quickly to a close, the Bitcoin Longs are not a good sign for the future of the price. Traditionally, the end of year has come with a surge, but sense the market has grown in terms of market cap and exposure, the historical trends can no longer be relied upon.

Bitcoin Longs vs Shorts Via BlockchainWhisper

Right now the market is clearly leaning towards the long position, but there is a clear disparity between Bitfinex and Bitmex indicators. From the numbers, we can easily assume there is heavy manipulation and a lack or transparity. More than likely investors are expecting a Q4 spike in the price, but as we saw in 2018, that is not always the case.

We need to remember that a majority of the market is most certainly wrong about the future price movements. Therefore, most investors will incline to short the market when too many people are long.

Right now is seems most speculators are projecting a $5,500 Bitcoin, but we know the highest volume support levels will come around $6,400. There is also the other variable of Tether printing to take into consideration. Seemingly every time Tether is printed it floods the market and boosts the price of Bitcoin.

Ethereum Longs

Right now, Ethereum is playing the same tune as Bitcoin. Currently, ETH is hovering around the $150 price levels which is way below the vital $200 support level that was breached months ago. It seems the further the staking update gets pushed, the more the market suffers in entirety.

Ethereum Longs vs Shorts BlockchainWhisper

The longs and shorts are in a similar position to Bitcoin with Bitfinex clearly being skewed towards a long position and Bitmex holding more of a steady medium. Bitmex is showing more consistency with Bitfinex looking like there is ample manipulation to distort investor sentiment across the market.

Is Long vs Shorts a Good Indicator

From what we’ve seen, Bitfinex is not a good indicator of the market sentiment. Bitmex might be the best indicator with 60% of their market thinking Bitcoin should shoot back up to decent price levels.

On an up tick, we could probably see Bitcoin bounce off the $9,000 resistance level and land around $8,500. On the opposite spectrum, Bitcoin could easily retrace to the $6,000 levels and hover around the $6,300-$6,400 region. Due to an excess of people expecting a $5,000 Bitcoin, the price will likely not reach that level.

Although, We have already seen an extremely low Bitcoin price of $3,300 less than a year ago, so it is very possible for Bitcoin to take another tumble down to those levels. If that does happen, I would suspect that time frame would be much shorter that it stays around those price levels.

Bitcoin Price Expectation

The stronger argument currently is that Bitcoin is in a accumulation stage once more. There is little evidence that the price will drop to new yearly lows, mainly due to the fact that the halving is so close.

During this period, Bitcoin’s exposure level starts to peak and leads to more investor attention. Therefore, the lower end of the Bitcoin price spectrum is looking less and less likely as we progress into 2020.