Wow, what an exciting couple of weeks we have had in crypto. Clearly 2020 is out of the window and 2021 is in the drivers seat with gains and market shifts that are happening daily.
To back track a little bit, I started mapping out Bitcoin’s developments back in 2016. I mean really mapping them. With the data I applied multiple distributions to the developments, reviewed historical movements compared to comparable assets, and ended up building out an entire model trying to predict the next price that Bitcoin could surge to. While we all thought it would happen in 2020, 2021 is not far off. I want to go over what that model ended up telling me below.
Although before we dive into what that model said, and the price I expected BTC to grow to, please remember to invest responsibly. Right now is considered extreme FOMO. Remember, there will eventually be a retracement and more time to invest into crypto at reasonable levels. Don’t empty your saving, take a second mortgage, get a loan from the bank, or steal money just to invest in crypto at the moment. In other words, be smart. Be patient.
Nothing should be considered investment or financial advice. Enjoy the ride.
With that out of the way, Here’s what this post will be discussing:
- Bitcoin expectations? What did my model say
- Why now? Why crypto
- What do the billionaires know
- Market expectations per certain assets
Bitcoin Model Expectations – To the Model
Guys, to say my model was pretty close would be an exaggeration. My model put Bitcoin right around $42,000 during the next bullrun. My range of significance was between $35k – $55k, but you get the picture. Now, from a mathematical approach it was not that hard to predict. Once an assist attempts to scratch 1 trillion in market cap, there will be some resistance. Bitcoin is not far from doing this now.
Although what my model could not predict is the outcome of Bitcoin breaking $40,000.
Crypto Market Pressure
What I mean to say is, I could not predict Tesla and Elon musk of all people investing into crypto PUBLICLY. Now, we know without a doubt that most, if not all, of the largest hands around the world own some crypto. Regardless of what the say, they DO. Trust me, THEY DO. Do you know why?
Why do the rich invest in Bitcoin?
They invest into Bitcoin for diversity. Diversity in their assets does one thing – it protects their wealth.
People with more money then they know what to do with want one thing. To protect their wealth.
Think about it with me. The market is insanely high right now. I mean the traditional market. Houses are selling in days, stocks are out of this world, we have huge monopolies, and companies with values in the trillions. The world, in a financial sense, is on fire right now.
Great right? No.
That just means at some point, it will crash. We are in a massive, undeniable bubble. People are making 2x and 3x over night on traditional stocks. Not just some people, but thousands of people. Whenever there are that many “winners” there are bound to be that many “losers” later on.
What Do the Billionaires Know About Crypto
The billionaires, the hedge funds, and the governments have known. All three of those entities are already, and have been for years investing in Bitcoin. South Korea, Japan, Russia, China, and yes parts of the US are already holding Bitcoin in reserves. They know the power of diversity. Now today, the largest companies in the world are joining the trend publicly.
You see, when the lights turn off on this movie we’ve been living and the tide turns, commodities and crypto will be the strongest assets to hold on the market.
Anyways, that is my rant on what’s to come for the global economy. That is why crypto is important. Moving forward, lets discuss my expectations for some of the other top assets in the market. Namely:
- #2 in the market: Ethereum
- #3 in the market (removing Tether): Cardano
- #6 in the market (removing Tether): Binance Coin
- #4 in the market (removing Tether): Ripple
- Top new comers: Polkadot, Chainlink
- Crowd favorites: Dogecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin SV
- Legacy coins: Litecoin, Stellar, Monero
Crypto Market Expectations
I am going to just dive in and hit each topic directly. Remember, these are just my personal perspectives on the crypto market and each project. Do your own research, develop your own opinions, and feel free to comment/make fun of my comments on Twitter.
*Note after writing. I realized That there is another group of assets to comment on – These are the generation three projects like EOS, TRON, Vechain, IOTA. These projects all are a toss up. There is no clear indication of how these projects will fair, but being this is their first or second bull market. It will either make or break them. Anyways – continue on please :).
Ethereum Bullmarket Expectations
Ethereum is clearly the second largest crypto for a reason, and there is no arguing it’s place in this market. The giant has proved itself since 2014 and continues to do so now. For Ethereum’s expectation, I mainly looked at the last bull run and compared it to where Bitcoin sat. For reference, Bitcoin scratched a $300 billion market cap last bull run.
Given the additional exposures the market is accruing currently and the further developments on Ethereum, this is not out of the realm of expectations. I would say, if Ethereum crosses $300 billion in market cap then it would be a strong sell signal. The only thing that could derail this would be huge investor influx similar to what Elon just did for Bitcoin. Given that does not happen and due to the continued lack of understanding from the traditional market, then Ethereum will probably scratch $2,600 at some time this bullrun.
Cardano Bullmarket Expectations
While Cardano might be new to some of the eyes and minds of the crypto elite, it is not new to me. I have been following this project extensively since Charles’ whiteboard video several years ago.
This project bridges to be the financial arm of smart contracts that are verifiable through function based coding languages. Now there is much more to the project, but it has clearly showed huge promise, great community strength, and resilience.
Predicating a level for this asset is truly difficult due to several factors. This asset has pushed out staking in the previous year which drastically can manipulate the circulating supply and it is still fairly new to the market. For this projects expectations, we can look to the other top assets last bull run and measure the changes using Bitcoin’s and Ethereum’s new range as a ratio.
I am pushing this asset to break $50 billion in market cap this bull run, but will probably shy away from going over $75 billion for some time. Anything of $75 billion is an incredibly strong sell signal. Plus, the company is not quite there yet to be valued at such a level. I have faith that it will one day though.
Binance Coin Bullmarket Expectations
If you do not use Binance, then I am not sure if you are even in crypto. Binance, the largest exchange on the market, is clearly going to hold an asset that is in similar regards. Binance Coin has been one of the riskiest and most profitable holds in my book for many people.
I personally stayed away from this asset due to its direct ties to an exchange, but that is also it’s strength. You see, it automatically has utility and purpose.
Now, what do I expect from it this bull run?
Well, to be honest it has already exceeded expectations. Scratching $20 billion market cap is huge for this project. I could easily see this project shooting for $30 – $50 billion, but I would not see it as a huge hodl for any company or government ever. Still, it should remain a top 10 project given its reputation and utility and maintain that spot moving forward.
Ripple Bullmarket Expectations
Whew here is a hard asset to discuss.
Full disclosure, I predicted Ripple to be one of the most profitable holds the last bull run in 2017. I personally got in at $0.10 and followed up to $2.00. I had full faith in the project back then and knew it would be huge.
Although, that perspective has changed drastically over the past few years. So much so that I do not even own it anymore. Why might you ask?
Well, there has been several issues with the project including continual dumping on investors diluting the value of the project over time. Not to mention the previous founder Jeb has been constantly selling millions of his share of the project every single month for years.
With the company Ripple dumping on investors , Jeb dumping monthly, new SEC troubles, and the lack of development on the banking end, this project has sort of run its course with me.
Now, the project still could post gains. I am expecting Ripple to easily break out above $1 and get past $50 billion in market cap, but it will not hold in my opinion. Slowly this asset might die off. Sad to say it, but it needs a new perspective for it to continue.
Polkadot and Chainlink Bullmarket Expecations
Lets all welcome the new comers to the spotlight of the crypto market! As exciting as the market is, new projects make things that much more interesting. New teams, new ideas, and furthering the impact of crypto as a whole.
Again in full disclosure, I do not own these projects, but I have started to watch them closely. Polkadot is aiming to bring full interoperability to the market, while Chainlink is trying to become the go-to oracle for smart contracts. Since these projects are new and do not have any market history, there is no real level of expectations. I would say, if they can maintain top 10 spots then they should fair just fine. Probably will reach market caps of $25 billion (Chainlink) and $35 billion (Polkadot) respectively.
Dogecoin, Bitcoin Cash, and Bitcoin SV Market Expectations
These projects you might say are very different from each other. Well, not really. They are all historically pump and dump projects that were once all former carbon copies of the Bitcoin core code.
These projects sadly do not have any intrinsic value, but they are “fun” projects the market has deemed acceptable. What I mean by this is that… people pump them and dump them within days on the market. Over and over. The only reason they stay afloat at the top of the market cap rankings is because of their volume, market wide acceptance, and the allure of making huge gains in short amounts of time.
These projects will sadly eventually die off and fall out of the market scene. Now, in the short-term there is still money to be made off of them if you so choose. But be very careful. These projects will dump as much as they will pump overnight leaving you with bags of dreams and hopes.
Dogecoin is already higher than it should be and will probably fall soon. Although if the entire market pumps, it might maintain current levels and grow accordingly. Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV have yet to see their big pumps like historically suggested. I would watch these and you might be able to make a quick buck watching the charts with them.
Litecoin, Stellar, Monero Market Expectations
Looking to the legacy coins – the coins that have been on the market for several years consistently breaching top 10 spots.
To address these coins as a group – they are not going to go anywhere soon. They will probably still be around the next bull run simply because of their use across the market and strong communities. Now, Litecoin most certainly will not be able to keep up with it’s cousin’s growth (Bitcoin), but it should reach new all time highs and probably will stay in a top 10 spot. Likewise, Stellar and Monero always seem to secure a top 15 or 20 spot somewhere. That is due to several reasons, but the projects are well known throughout the market and proven over time. They are trusted by traders, investors, and speculators.
Some of the newer projects have not been market tested, while these have been time and time again. Holding these projects will be the equivalent of holding a market portfolio of traditional stocks. I view these projects as such:
- If the market goes up, these projects will go up
- If the market goes down, these projects will go down
Fairly simple. Anyways, these projects will more than likely experience new all time highs, but I am not as familiar to say where they will stop. Your best bet is trailing stop losses and keeping a close eye on the historic data for assets in similar spots relative to Bitcoins new price points.
Crypto Market Expectations 2021
Thanks for reading my post on Crypto Market Expectations. Remember, these are personal views that I hold and should be treated as such. Do your own research, make your own bets and as always – Enjoy the ride.