Will 2020 Be The Year of The Bull Or The Bear – Looking At The Market

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2020 Crypto Market

The year 2020 is going to be a great year with everything going on so far. Clearly, I am totally kidding, but maybe not for crypto.

The world seems to be on fire everywhere you look. Just about every month this year has brought with it new unforeseen challenges that the world is unprepared for. With all the uncertainty, it might be time for crypto to start becoming the formidable secure asset class we all want it to become. By that I mean, it needs to offer itself as the prime diversifiable asset class above all of the other traditional commodities. Let’s discuss what crypto is currently during, Bitcoin’s price, and what else crypto could look to fix in 2020.

Nothing should be considered investment or financial advice. Enjoy the ride.

2020 Crypto Market

Taking a hard long look at the market right now, we are in a pretty good position.

Historically, the earlier months of the year have been extremely volatile and unpredictable. Although recently, is seems these months have only served to bolster the crypto community back up again to their former glory. Most of the altcoins are slowly bridging out of their prolonged crypto winter, and the grandfather Bitcoin looks to be entering Spring as well.

This is all gearing up to look like a beautiful digital asset Spring across the entire market. In addition, there are plenty of huge updates looking to see daylight for the first time in years for most of the top assets. Not to mention the extreme global market interest in stable currencies from the Bank of China and most of the largest countries in the world.

It is hard at this point for anyone to say, crypto is fake or just a phase. Crypto has beyond proven its resilience to the winter the market went through to purge itself of the fake ICOs cluttering up the investors and sentiment. We have clearly seen a shift in the market sentiment as well since there is a lack of FUD throughout the market, and new investors seem to be funneling in weekly.

Bitcoin Halving

While we could ignore the largest indicator of the shift, it would not be wise. The Bitcoin halving once again has come to pass, and the network took a steep tumble. While some people look to the network strength as an indicator of Bitcoin price movements, it really does not correlate as well as expected. That is simply due to the economics behind the the Bitcoin reward system and the extreme harsh reality of the Bitcoin halving taking effect.

A better indicator of Bitcoin’s price movement would be statistics like the Grayscale’s fund investing more money weekly into Bitcoin than is currently being produced by the miners in total. Statistics like those are sure to move the needle over time as the OTC market slowly dries up once again causing a lapse in the supply and demand model.

These are simple metrics, but these metrics are consistent. There is only so much Bitcoin produced, and if there are people buying more than is available on the OTC market, it will trickle into the public market.

It only takes time before the price reflects these movements.

Crypto Purpose

While crypto did and does have a purpose to offer a completely decentralized and removed asset class from the traditional market, it will also serve as a new type of commodity. Slowly it will allow investors to hedge away from the traditional heavily manipulated markets of banks and funds to a new stage of investing.

One that has no time limit, person to print more of it, or governing authority. It is a new age and it offers new models for derivatives, funds, indexes, and investing all together. No longer are the normal foreign and domestic investment options the only things on the market, there is a new option in town that most heavy handed investors are probably looking into right about now.

I mean with the uncertainty growing for where the market is heading, why would they not look at crypto? The FED is printing too much money, global trade has been slowing tremendously, and the banks are struggling. Investors will slowly see crypto as a viable alternative in case the worse happens.

Not saying crypto is the most secure place to put your money. Although, the idea is hedging your bet. People with plenty of money know, this is all that matters. Spreading your wealth as far as possible, to prevent any single point of large loss. Crypto, seems to me to be just another avenue to spread the wealth at the end of the day.

Next Crypto Bullrun

There has been plenty of talk about this subject.

For myself, I think the next bullrun will not kick off until late 2021. Here is why:

  • There are still not enough real products on the market.
  • Bitcoin only just had it’s halving. There needs to be time for this to take effect.
  • Ethereum has not launched it’s big update yet.
  • Several projects are still preparing to launch huge updates to their main net.
  • The next wave of investors are not here yet.
  • Regulation is still at a miss in certain vital areas of the world halting development
  • The bullrun could be slowed by world disasters like Covid

These are only a few reasons, but I think another year is due before the retail investors flood the market. There is still too much focus on disasters, racial equality, and lack of developments. Once all this has passed, we could see blue skies once again in the crypto world. Like I said, this is only a guess. The flip side of the coin is that with less people focusing on price, the movement could happen more suddenly and unexpectedly. It is best to keep your assets as liquid as possible and monitor the market daily to capture the best prices and secure your profits.